In the last 15 or 20 years especially, it has been the practice of some politicians to accuse their opponents of being overly driven by polling data — as if the accused were cynical suck-ups with no minds of their own. I’ve never understood why anyone would think that charge has any salience when 1) most of the accusers are probably just as beholden to public opinion polls as the rest; and 2) I would think it would be a mark of honor for a politician in a modern democracy to show voters he is taking their perspectives into account — if not following them slavishly. Isn’t that what democracy is all about?

Besides, as Andrew Kohut, President of the Pew Research Center points out in a recent essay, today’s political leaders have no choice but to listen to the voices that emerge from surveys.

“Polls now provide leaders with capital or impoverish them in their efforts to promote policies,” Kohut writes. “Those who can back up their assertions by pointing to poll results find the going easier than leaders who cannot. In turn, news organizations cover policy initiatives differently when programs appear to have popular support compared with when they do not. As a result, the public has become a more important player in national affairs over the past three decades. It is not possible to find a major national policy initiative for which polling has not played a significant, even critical, role.”

Summing up his thesis, Kohut offers four qualifications or implications of how public opinion polls have increasingly influenced policy makers over the last three decades:

1. “The public plays a passive, not active role in shaping public policy. The polls show assent or opposition to policies that the media know or suspect are on the agenda of national leaders…. [P]olling that asks ordinary citizens about policy options they have not heard about often produces dubious results. Polls provide a good sounding board for public reactions, but they are not a fount of specific suggestions for public policy….
2. “[P]olling has influenced the techniques and strategies of leadership, rather than hamstrung leaders. Coping with what the polls show about public opinion is one of the things that leaders now have to do. Yes, previous generations of leaders could not ignore public opinion altogether; certainly not on the biggest questions of the day…. But such instances were the exception, not the rule…. [Modern leaders] need to know how to use polls or they end up being used by them, to quote historian Garry Wills….
3. “[A]lthough the prominence of polls gives greater voice to the people, other competing voices can still trump public opinion or, at a minimum, tone down the impact of what the polls are showing. A notable example is found in the general public’s consistent calls for greater gun control. After the Columbine school shooting, support for greater restrictions reached a crescendo. Yet, broad public opinion was no match for the power of the National Rifle Association….
4. “[T]he great empowerment of public opinion raises questions about the potential for manipulation. The American public is noted for the limited attention it pays to public affairs. Critics of the public’s judgments charge that an ill-informed public is easily pushed and pulled by advocates…. [B]ut there is a long history of failed attempts to manipulate public opinion. Perhaps the best way to think about public opinion and its relationship to politics and policymaking is that the American public is typically short on facts, but often long on judgment.”

Okay, now let’s turn this over to you, the readers. Do you:

• Strongly agree?
• Agree?
• Have no opinion?
• Disagree?
• Strongly Disagree?

October 19th, 2009 by Jeff Weintraub | No Comments